Disney+ vs. Apple TV+? Now You Can Play Streaming Fantasy Sports
We break down Peak Streaming to its parts — and let you bet on the winner
This sounds like a boon for consumers — and a rather grim Game of Thrones-style situation for the actual companies. But in some sense, the opposite is true.
As competing services fling billions of dollars (and creative latitude) at prestige TV’s hottest showrunners, sifting through the onslaught of new choices is going to be a headache for viewers. By one estimate, we’re already closing in on 500 original scripted shows. The Los Angeles Times recently calculated that subscribing to every current or pending streaming service it could identify would cost about $350 a month, not including the cost of internet access. Yay?
But what will make this moment historical is it is a rare glimpse into what happens when a slew of hypersuccessful companies end up in the ring at the very same moment, placing contradictory bets on virtually every variation of every conceivable business strategy.
What better way to track how Peak Streaming will play out than to treat it as if it were a fantasy sports tournament. Forget winning or losing teams. It’s more interesting to pick the components of each competing model that you believe are crucial — or total duds. In this case, of course, those picks won’t be LeBron or Giannis, but pieces of an entertainment-business model.
Here are the basics: Choose your top three, and your bottom three — and then let’s circle back in a year and see what happens!
Affordability
Apple TV+, which launched November 1, and Disney+, which launches today, are pursuing distinctly different strategies — with one exception. (Well, two if you count the use of “+.”) Both are strikingly cheap.
Apple, hardly known for discount pricing, is asking just $4.99 a month, and Disney says it will charge $6.99 a month. Compare that to $12.99 for Netflix’s most popular plan (reflecting a $2 price hike earlier this year, a move that evidently prompted 126,000 U.S. subscribers to flee).
In contrast, AT&T recently announced that its forthcoming HBO Max service will charge $14.99. This is the same cost as HBO itself — and free to HBO’s 35 million subscribers — but with additional new content, plus shows and movies from the Warner Bros. library that AT&T also owns. Pricey as that is compared to the competition, it’s as low as AT&T can realistically go, without undercutting the price of HBO itself. The argument, as one AT&T executive declared with old-school swagger, is that “higher quality should warrant a slightly higher price.”
Watercooler exclusives
The streaming era has proven that the right show can make or break a platform’s bottom-line. A recent example: Netflix credited the popularity of Stranger Things with helping it bounce back from that price-increase stumble, adding over a half million new subscribers in the U.S., and millions more globally, in the most recently ended quarter.
Having at least one prestige, culturally lauded exclusive — Fleabag for Amazon, Handmaid’s Tale for Hulu — seems to be a streaming-wars must. Thus a total feeding frenzy for deals with creators: HBO Max will have shows from Mindy Kaling and Ridley Scott, Amazon has a deal with Fleabag’s Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Netflix with Shonda Rhimes and Ryan Murphy, Warner with J.J. Abrams.
Nobody is making a more clear-cut bet on this strategy than Apple TV+, reportedly spending at least $1 billion on original content, and launching with nine programs. The most notable is The Morning Show, with the murderer’s row cast of Jennifer Aniston, Reese Witherspoon, and Steve Carell. Reviews have been mixed. Maybe it will take off anyway, or maybe there are hidden gems elsewhere in the lineup. But Apple TV Plus needs a hit.
Nostalgia
It turns out many viewers still just want to watch “classic” shows from the past. Again. That’s why it seemed like a serious blow when Netflix lost the rights to Friends and The Office — and consequently forked over to get the exclusive rights to stream Seinfeld — in a flurry of deals reportedly in the $425 to $500 million range. Friends (and The Big Bang Theory) will be on HBO Max. Comcast, which owns NBC, plans a service to be released next year called Peacock that, in addition to new programming, will reportedly feature seasons of 30 Rock and Parks and Recreation — and The Office. And Disney hasn’t exactly been subtle about its strong nostalgia hand. Its October IP tweet-flex reminded the crowd that in addition to Star Wars, its library is overflowing with ’70s and ’80s throwbacks like Freaky Friday, Willow, and Honey, I Shrunk the Kids.
Brute-force variety
There’s the straight-up more-for-your-money pitch. As mentioned, Apple’s service offers a meager nine original shows. Meanwhile, Netflix offers 1,500 shows plus an estimated 4,000 movies. It offers stand-up specials, kid shows, concerts, and theatrical tie-ins like The Irishman, the new Martin Scorsese Oscar-bait mob drama that the company has lavishly backed. Even if you never come close to exploring this black hole of content, there’s something appealing about feeling like you have an endless number of potential choices. Thus Netflix’s “Browse Endlessly” plan, which simply offers the opportunity to scroll through things you might watch, forever. (Okay, that’s not real, it’s an Onion story. But it’s true that endless choice has its own weird appeal.)
Kids’ shows
Finally, Disney will unlock those movies parents everywhere have been jonesing to show their kids for years, from Snow White to Fantasia. It’s hard to imagine any parent — especially this holiday season, with stir-crazy kids running circles around them at home — not succumbing to that $6.99 a month service. (What is that, a latte and a half?) Disney+ will reportedly launch with a catalog of about 500 movies, and thousands of television episodes. Similarly, Netflix has worked furiously to make kid-friendly content a priority, and HBO Max will (controversially) be the exclusive streaming home of Sesame Street.
Commercials
Wasn’t the whole point of tech-forward TV — starting with TiVo and extending into the subscription-supported streaming era — to dump annoying ads?
Peacock, the forthcoming NBC-centric service from Comcast, seems to be a bit of a work in progress, but will reportedly be free to pay-TV subscribers — along with advertising. That’s almost a record-scratch announcement, given that the marquee services that hog most of the streaming-wars attention are ad-free.
But it turns out that ad-supported streaming is a legit business. One major reason is the rich data that such streamers can gather about their viewing audiences. Currently, Hulu charges $11.99 for its ad-free version, and $5.99 to watch with ads — and it says 70% of its viewers connect are willing to pay less in exchange for commercial interruption.
Movies
Remember movies? Once upon a time, they were a main attraction of a cable universe ruled by the likes of HBO and Showtime. In the prestige TV era, they don’t seem to get as much attention from the chattering class. (A narrative that unfolds in one 120-minute sitting? How unsatisfying!) Instead of striving to house everything a cine-buff might desire, streamers dabble in original productions — like Netflix’s The Irishman — that serve as flashy marketing events. These seem less like a direct bid for subscribers, and more of a shot at earning some brand-burnishing critical acclaim, as Netflix did last year with Roma. But when the streamer isn’t trying to win Oscars, it isn’t afraid to lower its brow with cinematic candy like Amy Poehler’s Wine Country or the Jennifer Aniston/Adam Sandler vehicle, Murder Mystery.
Bundles
Even pre-launch, Disney has been aggressive about leveraging its other properties to build a new streaming audience, by offering things like discounts to Disney Parks season passholders, and attendees at its D23 Expo fan convention. It will also offer combo deals with the ad version of Hulu and ESPN+, discounted as a group to $12.99.
And then of course there’s Amazon: Tapping into its streaming content involves joining Amazon Prime ($119 annually), which has a reported 100 million members. Amazon doesn’t disclose details about how many of those members are watching how much Prime Video, but obviously the reasons to be a Prime member (such as free shipping) that have nothing to do with Fleabag. So unless Netflix or Disney merges with Walmart, or UPS, or both, there’s a bit of an X-factor with Amazon’s model that its rivals are unlikely to match.
Inertia
Netflix has more than 150 million subscribers worldwide, and a highly familiar brand name. The streaming wars may not be a zero-sum game, but it’s much easier to simply continue paying for a tried and true service than to sign up for a new one (or set your Google calendar to wind up and wind down lots of subscriptions depending on what shows you want to watch each month). It seems likely that the simple fact of their head start gives existing services at least some edge. How much will that matter as newer services spend like crazy to tempt us? Stay tuned.