Disney+ vs. Apple TV+? Now You Can Play Streaming Fantasy Sports

We break down Peak Streaming to its parts — and let you bet on the winner

Illustrations: Shira Inbar

What should you watch right now? In the era of Netflix, Amazon Prime, and Hulu, the answer seems to be: everything. As you’ve heard by now, suddenly everything is not nearly enough. Apple, AT&T (HBO), Comcast (NBC) — and as of today, Disney — have launched or announced new streaming services to satiate (and complicate) your entertainment choices.

This sounds like a boon for consumers — and a rather grim Game of Thrones-style situation for the actual companies. But in some sense, the opposite is true.

As competing services fling billions of dollars (and creative latitude) at prestige TV’s hottest showrunners, sifting through the onslaught of new choices is going to be a headache for viewers. By one estimate, we’re already closing in on 500 original scripted shows. The Los Angeles Times recently calculated that subscribing to every current or pending streaming service it could identify would cost about $350 a month, not including the cost of internet access. Yay?

But what will make this moment historical is it is a rare glimpse into what happens when a slew of hypersuccessful companies end up in the ring at the very same moment, placing contradictory bets on virtually every variation of every conceivable business strategy.

What better way to track how Peak Streaming will play out than to treat it as if it were a fantasy sports tournament. Forget winning or losing teams. It’s more interesting to pick the components of each competing model that you believe are crucial — or total duds. In this case, of course, those picks won’t be LeBron or Giannis, but pieces of an entertainment-business model.

Here are the basics: Choose your top three, and your bottom three — and then let’s circle back in a year and see what happens!

Affordability

Apple, hardly known for discount pricing, is asking just $4.99 a month, and Disney says it will charge $6.99 a month. Compare that to $12.99 for Netflix’s most popular plan (reflecting a $2 price hike earlier this year, a move that evidently prompted 126,000 U.S. subscribers to flee).

In contrast, AT&T recently announced that its forthcoming HBO Max service will charge $14.99. This is the same cost as HBO itself — and free to HBO’s 35 million subscribers — but with additional new content, plus shows and movies from the Warner Bros. library that AT&T also owns. Pricey as that is compared to the competition, it’s as low as AT&T can realistically go, without undercutting the price of HBO itself. The argument, as one AT&T executive declared with old-school swagger, is that “higher quality should warrant a slightly higher price.”

Watercooler exclusives

Having at least one prestige, culturally lauded exclusive — Fleabag for Amazon, Handmaid’s Tale for Hulu — seems to be a streaming-wars must. Thus a total feeding frenzy for deals with creators: HBO Max will have shows from Mindy Kaling and Ridley Scott, Amazon has a deal with Fleabag’s Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Netflix with Shonda Rhimes and Ryan Murphy, Warner with J.J. Abrams.

Nobody is making a more clear-cut bet on this strategy than Apple TV+, reportedly spending at least $1 billion on original content, and launching with nine programs. The most notable is The Morning Show, with the murderer’s row cast of Jennifer Aniston, Reese Witherspoon, and Steve Carell. Reviews have been mixed. Maybe it will take off anyway, or maybe there are hidden gems elsewhere in the lineup. But Apple TV Plus needs a hit.

Nostalgia

Brute-force variety

Kids’ shows

Commercials

Peacock, the forthcoming NBC-centric service from Comcast, seems to be a bit of a work in progress, but will reportedly be free to pay-TV subscribers — along with advertising. That’s almost a record-scratch announcement, given that the marquee services that hog most of the streaming-wars attention are ad-free.

But it turns out that ad-supported streaming is a legit business. One major reason is the rich data that such streamers can gather about their viewing audiences. Currently, Hulu charges $11.99 for its ad-free version, and $5.99 to watch with ads — and it says 70% of its viewers connect are willing to pay less in exchange for commercial interruption.

Movies

Bundles

And then of course there’s Amazon: Tapping into its streaming content involves joining Amazon Prime ($119 annually), which has a reported 100 million members. Amazon doesn’t disclose details about how many of those members are watching how much Prime Video, but obviously the reasons to be a Prime member (such as free shipping) that have nothing to do with Fleabag. So unless Netflix or Disney merges with Walmart, or UPS, or both, there’s a bit of an X-factor with Amazon’s model that its rivals are unlikely to match.

Inertia

Marker

Making you smarter about business. A new publication from Medium.

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Written by

Off Brand columnist and senior writer for Marker, writing about design/tech/marketing/business/culture. Author of The Art of Noticing. RobWalker.net

Making you smarter about business. A new publication from Medium.

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